News & Tips

With another strong quarter of vacant land activity behind us in September, it’s worth taking a closer look at how far we’ve come since the end of 2024.

While land market performance has been strong across all markets through most of 2025, the starting point at the end of 2024 was very different across our three main markets.

Melbourne Land Market

Rate Cuts Trigger Sustained Recovery in Land Market Activity

At the end of 2024, Melbourne, typically the largest vacant land market in the country, was well into its third year in the doldrums, with very low sales volumes, no real price movement, and high levels of rebates and incentives. It was still working its way through the pull-forward of demand from the Homebuilder stimulus, and new house and land was struggling to stack up against an established market that had moved into negative annual price growth by August.

The first rate cut in February saw established and land markets start to move immediately. Sales volumes in the month of March were the highest in 2.5 years, and quarterly sales were up 12% on December 2024 levels.

A second rate cut in May, and the expectation of up to three more, saw sales jump to over 1,000 in the month of May, a level not seen since June 2022. Some easing in June and July fed into another 1,000-plus sales month in August. The last cut in August meant that sales in the six months to September were sustained at a level nearly 50% above what had been achieved over the prior three years, and they are now running above 9,000 per annum and on track to exceed 10,000 by the end of 2025.

While headline prices have remained relatively flat, incentives and rebates have been falling and are expected to be largely done by 2026, and headline price growth is likely to recommence for the first time in nearly three years.

South East Queensland Land Market

Outpaces Melbourne as Land Prices Skyrocket

The South East Queensland (SEQ) market had very different dynamics to those in Melbourne. It had continued strong interstate migration, a much stronger established housing market, and an undersupply of vacant new land in most corridors.

Consequently, 2024 was a strong year for both sales volumes and prices. Despite a dip in sales in the December 2024 quarter, the year overall was up over 30% compared to 2023 volumes. Not only was activity strong, but prices also rose 13%, pushing the median price to just under $400,000.

While sales volumes dipped slightly in the first quarter of 2025, it wasn’t from lack of demand. Prices rose over 11% in just one quarter, running just under 30% annually and exceeding the median price of Melbourne for the first time. Rate cuts have had only a positive effect on already strong demand. In the June and September quarters, sales volumes rose 22% on the previous six months.

After taking a breather in the June quarter, median prices jumped a further 10% in the September quarter as supply failed to keep up with demand. An accelerating established market also supported prices. As we move into the final quarter of 2025, land prices are rising at an annual rate of 27%.

Adelaide Land Markets

Adelaide Land Market Rebounds as Prices Hit Historic Highs

While the underlying demand for new land is not quite as strong as in South East Queensland, Adelaide has arguably been more undersupplied due to infrastructure bottlenecks over the last few years. This has led to a sharp decline in sales volumes in late 2024 and early 2025. December 2024 and March 2025 combined sales were down over 40% on the previous 6 months, averaging only 350 sales per quarter. At the same time, price growth accelerated from 10% in September 2024 to nearly 20% by the end of March 2025.

As developers have worked to bring stock to market, sales volumes have risen by nearly 60% in the June and September 2025 quarters, pushing back to 600 sales per quarter, and getting closer to longer-term average levels.

Even as sales volumes have risen, price growth has been historically strong. Median land prices are up 32% and when considering falling median land size, the $/sqm rate is up a staggering 46% compared to September 2024.

All three markets are moving into the final quarter of 2025 and 2026 with clear momentum in sales growth, price growth, or both. Even if the market delivers just one more rate cut in the easing cycle, the quickly improving economic position (and outlook) of households and consumers, combined with an acute housing undersupply in most markets across the country, as well as expanded first home buyer incentives, means 2026 is looking like a strong year for greenfield markets.

Matt Bell
Chief Economist
Oliver Hume Property Group