News & Tips
Oliver Hume's Labour Force Comments
Following today's release of the monthly Labour Force Survey by the ABS, the following statement can be attributed to Oliver Hume Chief Economist, Matt Bell.
The immediate impact on property markets of today’s in-line Labour Force result for August is that the chances of a September rate cut are still close to zero and the next cut is likely to be delivered on Melbourne Cup day in November, with one more coming sometime in the first half of 2026.
It will also support the strong outlook for land markets for the remainder of 2025 and throughout 2026. With lot sales increasing across the country in the June quarter and September quarter activity pointing to further increases, it’s likely that even those markets where price growth has been subdued (I’m looking at you Melbourne), will start to see prices rise sooner rather than later.
Unemployment remained flat at 4.2% (the same level as July 2024), frustratingly tight from the perspective of the RBA looking for some increase to ease inflation pressures. Employment surprisingly fell by -5,000 but was offset by some easing in the participation rate.
The good news for consumers is that a low unemployment rate is great for wage growth and household incomes, and combined with falling mortgages rates, is likely to see the strength we saw in consumer spending in the June GDP and July Household spending numbers continue.