News & Tips

Following today's Monetary Policy Decision by the Monetary Policy Board, Reserve Bank of Australia, the following statement can be attributed to Oliver Hume Chief Economist, Matt Bell.

The strong outlook for land markets around the country for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 may have to be tempered if today’s hold spills over into the remainder of the RBA Board meetings of 2025.

With not a single mainstream economist willing to predict a move by the RBA today, the RBA delivered as expected and held rates steady for at least another month.

What has changed over the last week or two is the outlook for rates for the rest of 2025. Just a few weeks ago another cut in November or December was a near certainty. Multiple forecasters now think that the RBA is done for 2025 and will not cut again until closer to the middle of 2026. Expect more to change to that view in the coming weeks.

Property markets have benefited strongly from the three cuts delivered so far with seven consecutive monthly increases in house prices accompanying increases in land sales and prices across the country.

In Melbourne, traditionally the country’s largest land market, land volumes increased by nearly 50% in the June quarter, and July and August monthly sales look like holding that level of activity into the September quarter. Similar strength can be seen in other land markets around the country.

While existing mortgage holders and potential new entrants to the market would not have been banking on any savings from today’s decision, they surely are still counting on more cuts to help affordability over the next 6 months. It will be a nerve wracking month until September quarter inflation prints on the 29th October to provide some more concrete guidance.