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The Friday Wrap | 10 October 2025

Good afternoon,

 

Following the flurry of interest rate decision weeks, this week was notably quiet on the economic and property data front.

 

Highlights of the week:


Consumer sentiment from Westpac-Melbourne University fell heavily for the second consecutive month, giving back all the gains seen between May and August. “Time to buy a dwelling” sentiment was largely steady, but house price expectations surged again, hitting a 15-year high.

 

A recent survey showed the Australian Government’s 5 per cent Deposit Scheme has prompted one in six first home buyers to accelerate their purchase plans, reflecting rising demand and positive public sentiment. While awareness of the scheme is mixed - 45% understand it, 31% are unaware, and 24% hold misconceptions- most buyers prefer applying directly through banks rather than brokers.

 

Auction clearance rates (still affected by Grand Final weekend in Sydney) edged higher, holding over 70%, pointing to ongoing house price growth across the country. Auction markets will be tested over the next two weeks as more than 5,200 are scheduled.

 

There was no real change in the outlook for rates, with a cut in November (Melbourne Cup Day) currently sitting at about a 40% chance, with December the first month where the odds currently sit above 50%. The next rate cut is not priced in as a sure thing until March 2026, and the market currently thinks there is only one cut left in the easing cycle.

 

Have a great weekend!

 

Matt Bell

Chief Economist 

Tags: Research

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