News & Tips

Following today's release of quarterly GDP data by the ABS, the following statement can be attributed to Oliver Hume Chief Economist, Matt Bell.

The continuing strength of the household sector in today’s GDP result will be key in sustaining any property market growth into 2026 as the rate outlook deteriorates.

Today’s slightly weaker than forecast GDP result probably doesn’t move the needle significantly on the rates outlook or impact property markets significantly. Markets will still be expecting no more cuts in this easing cycle unless we get some combination of much higher unemployment rates and/or much lower inflation rates reported in the next five months.

This morning’s national GDP result came in at 0.4% for the September quarter, and 2.1% year-on-year. This was weaker than the market expectations of 0.7% and 2.2% and saw per capita growth flat after June’s rise, but the result still demonstrated improvements in growth in some key sectors. Growth was supported by strong population growth and terms of trade tailwinds.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Pleasingly for the land market outlook, the recovery in private sector activity witnessed in the June quarter was sustained in the September quarter, notwithstanding a pullback in discretionary spending (and not surprisingly, a rising savings ratio). Improvements in private sector demand broadened out from consumer spending to include a strong bounce in business and dwelling investment.

Once again, public sector activity was strong with public investment rebounding strongly from being the largest detractor of growth in the June quarter to the largest contributor to public demand.

ENDS

Media enquiries to:

Mitchy Koper
Oliver Hume
M.koper@oliverhume.com.au 
0417 771 778

or

Ben Ready
RGC Media & Mktng
ben@rgcmm.com.au
0415 743 838