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The Friday Wrap | 03 October 2025

Good afternoon,


A fairly eventful week in property and macro policy. The spotlight was on the RBA’s cash rate decision, the rollout of a 5 % deposit for first home buyers, and the latest Cotality House Price data for September.


Highlights of the week:

 

On 30 September, the RBA held the cash rate at 3.60 %, opting for a “hawkish hold” given sign of inflation resilience and strength in consumer demand. The release and comments afterward have seen the chance of another cut this calendar year fall to about 50%. Read the RBA Media Release. 

 

The expanded First Home Guarantee (5 % deposit scheme) became effective from 1 October. Key changes include removal of income caps, higher price caps, and unlimited places under the scheme.

 

According to Cotality’s September Home Value Index (HVI), national home prices rose by 0.8 % month-on-month — the fastest monthly gain in nearly two years. On a quarterly basis, prices rose 2.2 %, double the rate of the March quarter. Melbourne at 0.5% still lagged all other major capitals.

 

With the scheme changes, Cotality estimates that 63.1 % of all markets nationally will now fall under the new price caps (up from about one third previously), expanding first-home buyer options particularly in middle-ring suburbs and regional markets.


Have a great weekend!

 

Matt Bell

Oliver Hume Property Group

Chief Economist 

Tags: Research

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