News & Tips

A much bigger economic data week this week, with plenty of property and economic releases, but all of it leaving the cash rate outlook largely unchanged.   Next week, we have monthly CPI for August as the big economic release.

Highlights of the week:

Auction clearance rates are holding up strongly on high volumes of auctions. Melbourne had it’s third consecutive week of 1000+ auctions and saw clearance rates increase to 75.2%. The volume of auctions is set to increase again this weekend.

SQM’s August Rental Vacancy Rate was steady at 1.2% nationally in August. While steady over the month, it is actually slightly tighter than it was 12 months ago (1.3%). 

Population growth for March 2025 was released by the RBA and while the annual rate of increase fell slightly, some related indicators point to population growth stabilising or even ticking up over the remainder of the year.

Of note was Victoria recording its first quarter of positive net interstate migration since COVID at the same time interstate migration fell in QLD to its lowest quarterly level since 2016.

The national unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% in August, with a fall in jobs being offset by a fall in participation. This was weaker than the market expected which expects a gradually softening labour market.

This unemployment result was unlikely to change the likely outcome of the next RBA Board meeting on September 30^th, with markets now placing the chance of a cut at less than 10%. The next cut is still expected on Melbourne Cup Day (November 4^th).

Have a great weekend!

Chief Economist

Matt Bell