Oliver Hume Land Index & Residential Outlook
The Oliver Hume Land Index is a new quarterly publication, encapsulating the performance of residential land markets and their outlook in a single number. Land cost and availability is one of the major challenges in our housing market, and this index is quantifying that challenge, and also lifting the curtain on the metrics developers use to assess opportunities and making it publicly available every quarter.
Market Performance Indicators
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Executive Summary
The Oliver Hume Land Index & Residential Outlook represents a new benchmark in property market intelligence from Oliver Hume Property Group. Drawing on decades of transactional data across new land and townhouse sales, it combines first-hand market data, third-party insights, advanced analytics and national research expertise to assess Australia’s major land markets.
Covering Melbourne, Sydney, South-East Queensland, Perth and Adelaide, the Index provides a quarterly health check and a 12-month outlook for land sales, land prices and established housing values. Through a transparent benchmark scoring system, where 100 reflects long-term market balance, the Index offers developers, policymakers, investors and media a clear, data-driven guide to market performance and future trends.
High Level Methodology
To assess where a greenfield land market is in the cycle, we examine drivers across three main themes:
- Supply and demand fundamentals
- Market sentiment
- Pricing dynamics
For each market the methodology assigns multiple scores of each of the above theme’s sub-indicators, based on the latest reading relative to the longer-term trend level.
Weightings are then applied to sub-indicators and main themes to produce an index reading for the current status of each vacant land market.
This approach normalises results for comparison across markets, allowing us to systematically assess performance and rank markets across the country.
To produce a forecast of future conditions in each market (the Market Outlook), the model combines:
- the assessment of the current status of each market as per the current Index reading
- projections and forecasts of key drivers that are historically highly correlated to land markets (such as established market pricing, population growth, interest rates, land supply, etc.)
- historical analysis of vacant land cycles in terms of length, depth, frequency and land market correlations.
The model then produces an outlook, both for where we see the index for each market in the future as well as the specific implications for price and volume changes.
Setting the Benchmark in Land Market Intelligence
“The launch of the Oliver Hume Land Index and Residential Market Outlook is more than a new research report. It is a statement about Oliver Hume and the role we intend to play in the future of Australia’s property industry. For generations, we have been deeply embedded in the land market.”
Land Index FAQs
What is the Oliver Hume Land Index and Residential Market Outlook?
The Oliver Hume Land Index and Residential Market Outlook is a quarterly, data-based assessment of Australia’s major greenfield land markets. It provides a current market conditions check and a 12-month forecast of sales volumes and price movements.
Why has Oliver Hume launched the Index?
Oliver Hume launched the Index to bring greater transparency, structure and comparability to land market analysis. It aims to provide the property industry with a consistent and evidence-based framework for assessing market performance and future conditions.
Who is the Index designed for?
The Index is designed for developers, builders, governments, policymakers, media, corporate real estate investors and retail investors and home buyers seeking reliable insight into land market conditions.
How often is the Index published?
The Index is published quarterly. Each edition includes a data-driven assessment of current conditions and a 12-month outlook for land and established markets.
Which markets are covered?
The Index covers both land and established housing markets in Melbourne, Sydney, South East Queensland, Perth and Adelaide.
What are the two main components of the Index?
The Index includes two parts. The first is the State of the Land Market, which assesses current conditions and identifies the market’s position in the cycle. The second is the Market Outlook, which provides a 12-month forecast for each market.
How is each market scored?
Each market receives a score based on a benchmark of 100, which represents a balanced market operating at long-term average levels. A reading above 100 indicates the market is operating above long-term trend levels. A reading below 100 signals that the market is performing below its historical average.
How is the Land Index calculated?
The Index assesses greenfield land market conditions across three key themes: supply and demand fundamentals, market sentiment and pricing dynamics. Multiple sub-indicators are measured and assessed under each key theme.
How are the final Index scores determined?
The current measure of each sub-indicator is bench marked against its long-term trend levels. Weightings are then applied to both sub-indicators and key themes to produce a single Index reading for each market. See the Methodology section for more detail.
How is the 12-month Market Outlook developed?
The Outlook combines the current Index reading with projections of key drivers historically correlated with land markets, including established housing prices, population growth, interest rates and land supply.
What data sources are used?
The Index uses Oliver Hume’s proprietary land sales database as well as a range of third-party property market information from other market data providers, forecasters, industry bodies and government data sources.
Who produces the research?
Oliver Hume’s Research team, led by Chief Economist Matt Bell and National Research Manager Arash Manafi, has deep experience in quantitative assessments of residential (including new land) markets and economic and residential market forecasting, based on over 20 years of market experience and internal provision of these services to the country’s largest developers.
What value does the Index provide to the property industry?
The Index provides a consistent, transparent and comparable measure of land market health and a robust evidence-led outlook for all major Australian land markets. It supports the development industry, government planning bodies, industry advocacy groups and Oliver Hume’s clients by providing market insights that lead to better policy development and improved investment decision-making throughout the residential development life-cycle.
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