The Friday Wrap | 29 August 2025

Good afternoon,

A big week for the interest rate outlook as July inflation results were released, but also for the residential property industry specifically with some key Federal government announcements over the weekend.‍

Week in review:

July monthly inflation printed much higher than market expectations on Wednesday, pushing the annual measure from 1.9% to 2.8%, a full half a percentage point higher than markets were expecting.

The inflation result probably ensured no September 30^th rate cut by the RBA with a Melbourne Cup day cut (November 4^th) still looking the most likely next move.

Melbourne, the largest auction market in the country, saw the preliminary clearance rate hold above 70% for the seventeenth consecutive week in a weekend when over 1,000 auctions were held.

Changes to the First Home Buyer Guarantee announced by the Federal Government as part of the election campaign were brought forward from January 2026 to 1^st October 2025. The changes remove income caps and increase property price caps, significantly increasing eligibility.

Have a great weekend!

Chief Economist,

Matt Bell