ausbiz | A Tale of Two Australian Property Markets

Oliver Hume Chief Economist Matt Bell joined ausbiz to discuss the latest house price data and what it means for buyers, renters and the broader economy.

Bell described national dwelling values as flat following months of slowing growth, with Sydney and Melbourne recording monthly falls of close to 1%. He noted the weakness is concentrated in the middle and upper segments of those markets, while more affordable properties have remained relatively stable. Meanwhile, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continue to record annual price growth of between 10% and 26%, though Bell acknowledged those markets are also beginning to ease.

On the rental crisis, Bell argued that meaningful relief depends on a sustained increase in new housing supply rather than cuts to migration — which he cautioned would create flow-on effects for skills shortages and construction capacity ahead of the Brisbane Olympics. While federal budget measures targeting housing infrastructure were welcomed, Bell maintained that the hardest work falls to state and local governments through planning reform and approvals.

Turning to interest rates, Bell said market expectations have shifted meaningfully, with less than one further hike now fully priced in for 2026. He retained his view that one more increase is likely before year's end, followed by a prolonged period of stability, which he described as the key ingredient for preventing deeper price falls in Sydney and Melbourne.

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