ausbiz | Property Investors Brace for CGT and Gearing Hit

Oliver Hume Chief Economist Matt Bell appeared on ausbiz's The Plot to assess the state of Australia's housing market ahead of the RBA's May rate decision, offering analysis on price trends, investor activity, and the likely impact of proposed tax changes.

Bell described the market as broadly resilient, with March and April data continuing to show national price gains despite softer sentiment. He pointed to persistent housing undersupply — supported by Oliver Hume's March quarter land data — as the primary driver of ongoing growth, with Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide recording the strongest momentum, particularly in more affordable suburbs.

A clear split between market segments was a central theme of Bell's commentary. Greenfield and lower-priced areas continued to record solid price growth, underpinned by first home buyer schemes and strong underlying demand, while higher-end suburbs were identified as more vulnerable to further rate hikes given tighter borrowing capacity. Bell suggested any meaningful recovery in softer markets such as Melbourne could be pushed out to late 2026 or early 2027.

On the investor outlook, Bell noted that housing finance activity remained near record highs. While he acknowledged that proposed changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing would trim investor demand, he argued that any policy-driven pullback was likely to be outweighed by structural undersupply — particularly if the changes made no distinction between new and established housing.

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