Media Release | Cotality's Home Value Index Comment May

The following statementcan be attributed to Oliver Hume Property Group Chief Economist, Matt Bell.

Another month of theMiddle East War and expensive oil, and another month of rising national houseprices in Australia. Yes, price growth is easing according to Cotality’s latestmonthly Home Value Index, but it’s a heartening result given some of the direconsumer sentiment readings.

It seems a housingshortage goes a long way to mitigating an uncertain global environment when itcomes to dwelling prices. The longer established home price growth holds up,especially in those affordable greenfield suburbs, the better the outcome will befor land sales volumes and prices.

The patterns remainpretty much the same, just at a slightly lower rate of price growth (or afaster rate of price falls, depending on where you live). The rate of monthlyincrease decreased at a national level to 0.3%, down from 0.7% in March, butthe divergence between capitals remains stark.  

Perth, Brisbane, andAdelaide still saw historically strong monthly growth, while Sydney andMelbourne’s monthly easing of prices intensified to lock both firmly intonegative rates of quarterly growth.

The divergence betweenhigher and lower value suburbs also continued.  Lower-priced suburbs inSydney and Melbourne (and all other major capitals) are still seeing pricegrowth, dragged down by middle and upper-priced suburbs.

For the second month ina row, both of our largest capitals saw dwelling values fall. Meanwhile, Perth,Brisbane and Adelaide continue to charge ahead at record pace.

The risks to the 2026residential market outlook from the global instability are very real and withmost forecasters now expecting at least two more rate increases, 2026 hasprobably gone from being a solid year of recovery in prices, to a holdingpattern at best.

The silver lining isthat some of the tail risks around more dire outcomes for the crisis overseasseem to have disappeared. It will be a slow resolution, but the worst hasprobably passed. The question is just how quickly we can get costs back tonormal.

ENDS

Media enquiries to:

Mitchy Koper
Oliver Hume
M.koper@oliverhume.com.au 
0417 771 778

Lilly Mackay
Oliver Hume
l.mackay@oliverhume.com.au