Media Release | Australian Population Data Statement

17 Sep

min read

Chief Economist

Matt Bell

Media Release | Australian Population Data Statement

17 Sep 2026

min read

Following today's release of population data by the ABS, the following statement can be attributed to Oliver Hume chief economist, Matt Bell.

March’s population data released today has some really interesting implications for property markets. While the headlines will focus on the decline of annual overseas migration below forecast, it’s the interstate movements that tell us more.

It looks like the wildly different performance of Queensland’s and Victoria’s property markets over the last few years is having an impact on where people want to live. For the first time since COVID, Victoria experienced a net inflow of interstate migration on an annual basis. Yes, it is tiny at only 82 persons, but it came in exactly the same quarter when Queensland’s quarterly interstate migration fell to its lowest level since 2015.

The vacant land price for SEQ has now been above that of Greater Melbourne for nearly 18 months, and now sits more than $100,000 higher. According to Cotality, it’s only in the last few years that the median dwelling value in Brisbane in established markets also overtook that of Melbourne.

Queenslanders may not be actively moving to Victoria, but it does seem likely that more Victorians are staying put due to Queensland no longer providing the affordable housing solutions it historically has.

On a national level, while Australia’s annual population growth continues to ease from post-COVID highs, population growth of 1.4% remains well above the average of other advanced economies around the world at 0.6%. Overseas migration is still contributing 74% of the annual growth.

Even in the midst of a clear property market downturn, the fundamental drivers of demand remain strong. Population growth drives the need for new housing; apartments, townhouses and detached dwellings. Interest rates will eventually stabilise and then fall once inflation is under control, and Australia will still have a critical supply shortage in most markets across the country.