Media Release | Cotality's Home Value Index comment July 2026

Cotality's Home Value Index comment

The following statement can be attributed to Oliver Hume Property Group Chief Economist, Matt Bell.

July house price growth turned negative nationally, with Perth now the only major capital holding out with (just) positive monthly price growth. Sydney and Melbourne continue to lead the way down.

Of course, for Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, the monthly falls to date are dwarfed by the rises that have occurred over the past 24 months to leave all three with annual price growth still between 10%-20%.

We’re likely to see at least a few more months of price weakness, but there are some signs that all the hysteria around “the worst house price decline in decades” is overblown.

Auction clearance rates remain low, but are already off their sub-50% levels. In the country’s two largest auction markets, Melbourne reported its strongest preliminary clearance rate in over two months on the weekend, but Sydney remains close to the bottom.

The rates outlook changed noticeably last week with inflation coming in lower than expected and forecasts for future rate hikes being significantly tempered. The market now has a less than 50% chance of another hike this year and just over 50% for one more by March next year, with everyone expecting cuts to commence in the second half of 2027.

Once this rates outlook stabilises, factors like ongoing low unemployment, strong population growth and supply-side bottlenecks will put a bottom on dwelling prices pretty quickly and we can expect to see some stabilisation by the December quarter.

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ENDS

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