- Oliver Hume Land Index and Residential Outlook is Australia’s first and only quarterly, multi-market analysis of the land sector and draws on Oliver Hume’s decades of proprietary data.
- Melbourne’s overall Land Index score fell from 4.5 to 4.2 in the March quarter, moving the market further below normalised levels, and still waiting for the move into the upswing.
- The recovery that was expected to occur throughout 2026 has been pushed out to 2027.
Melbourne’s greenfield land market remained subdued in the March 2027 quarter, with the Oliver Hume Land Index and Residential Outlook declining from 4.5 to 4.2, signalling that market conditions continue to sit below normalised levels.
Demand indicators remained largely unchanged but remained on the weak side, with overall land sales well below underlying demand and long-term average sales levels.
The largest negative movement was recorded in pricing, with median lot price growth falling from 4% to 0%, reflecting the impact of strong supply and competition from both the established and new land markets.
The Oliver Hume Land Index and Residential Outlook is the first comprehensive quarterly analysis of Australia’s major land markets and draws on decades of data and industry expertise to spotlight opportunities and risks in Australia’s $16 billion new land market.
The Index is produced by Oliver Hume’s team of research analysts, led by Chief Economist Matt Bell. It draws on the company’s unparalleled internal land sales data and third-party information to provide insights on key markets in Melbourne, Sydney, South-East Queensland, Perth and Adelaide.
2026 Recovery Hopes Fading
Oliver Hume Chief Economist Matt Bell said the 2026 recovery in the Melbourne land market forecast in the last Index report had turned out to be “fragile”.
“The deterioration in the rates outlook, combined with the impact of the Budget taxation measures on the established market, has most likely pushed any significant recovery in annual volumes and price growth into the second half of 2027,”
He said the fundamental drivers of a recovery had not changed, despite expectations it may take longer.
“The build-up of pent-up demand over the last three years, some of the best relative affordability compared to other capital city markets ever and sufficient available supply means that Melbourne can respond quickly to changes in demand as the rates outlook stabilises and the established market returns to price growth,”
“We have eased our forecast of established house price growth from 6% to 8% by the end of 2026 to a more moderate 2%-4% by the end of the March quarter 2027, with price falls likely over the June and September quarters, returning to price growth by Q1 2027.”
Oliver Hume Property Group CEO Julian Coppini said the medium-term outlook for Melbourne’s land market was still largely driven by the outlook for interest rates, construction costs and state and local government new supply policy.
He said the changes to taxation policy were “second-order” drivers of activity.
“The Melbourne greenfield market land market remains well positioned to be supported by strong levels of population growth and three years of below average sales levels,”
“The market is also expected to benefit from stronger First Home Buyer activity during the next rate easing cycle, supported by strong relative affordability and government incentives.”
About The Index
The Oliver Hume Land Index and Residential Outlook is designed to provide greater understanding and transparency into Australia’s $16 billion a year land sales market. The quarterly Index has two core components.
State of Key National Land Markets
Provides a systematic assessment of the current condition of major land markets around the country. It allows users to compare relative performance across regions and identify the current phase of the cycle in each market.
Each market receives a score calibrated to 5 as the benchmark for a balanced market. A reading above 5 indicates conditions operating above the long-term average, while a reading below 5 signals a market performing below trend. This normalised approach enables direct comparison across cities and regions and allows the research team to systematically rank performance nationwide.
Residential Market Outlook
A 12-month outlook for the key market metrics of land sales volumes and price growth and an outlook for established market house price growth for each market.
ENDS
Media enquiries to:
Mitchy Koper
Oliver Hume
M.koper@oliverhume.com.au
0417 771 778
Lilly Mackay
Oliver Hume
l.mackay@oliverhume.com.au
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