Victoria Land Primed For Comeback, As SEQ and Adelaide Rumble On

Victoria’s land market is primed to begin a much-anticipated recovery in 2026, as other key land markets in South East Queensland and Adelaide continue to perform strongly, according to a new report on key land markets by Oliver Hume Property Group.

Oliver Hume today released its latest Quarterly Market Insights (QMI)data for the December quarter, which analyses thousands of land sales across key markets in Melbourne, South East Queensland and Adelaide.

Report Highlights

Victoria Property Market

• By the end of 2025, 12-monthsales volumes in Victoria had jumped by around 40% to over 9,000, and the median land price rose by 4%.
• Oliver Hume expects the Melbourne market to continue its recovery back toward long-term average sales levels and and price growth in 2026, supported by an improved established market.
  

South East Queensland

• In South East Queensland, land sales in the December 2025 quarter fell back to December 2024 and March 2025 levels, well below what we consider the long-term average.
• If developers can produce more stock, Oliver Hume expects sales to head back toward long-term averages and2026 to show a meaningful increase on 2025 levels, with price growth easing back to levels closer to established market price growth (10%-15%).

Adelaide

• Sales eased as the supply of new products continued to be a significant issue, and price growth on a quarterly basis was the strongest of all three markets.
• The outlook for sales for 2026depends highly on the ability of developers to bring new product to market.
• Writing in the report, Oliver Hume Chief Executive Officer, Julian Coppini said buyers were continuing to show up despite thechallenges presented by an uncertain interest rate environment, supply constraints and high prices.

“Australians have an insatiable appetite for home ownership and that aspiration has not changed, regardless of the rate cycle or the headlines of the day,” Mr Coppini said.

“People still want a place to call their own. They still want the security, lifestyle and long-term wealth creation that comes with owning a home. That underlying demand has proven remarkably resilient.”

“Even with the recent rate increase, enquiry levels in many markets have remained steady with exceptionally strong demand in Queensland and South Australia.”

• Oliver Hume Chief Economist said all three markets had started 2026 strongly in terms of enquiry and sales through Oliver Hume’s clients.

“Even with one rate rise already delivered and at least one more coming, we remain confident that the strength of underlying drivers for land remain in place and that 2026will be a stronger year for greenfield markets,” he said.

Victoria

• The QMI report highlights the recent challenges faced by the Victorian land market, which is coming off the lowest sales volumes in 15 years during 2023 and 2024. Despite these challenges, the company expects Victoria’s land market to deliver a stronger performance in 2026, on the back of growing valuation disparity too there key markets.
• Mr Coppini said established homes built four or five years ago were often selling at significant discounts to the cost of building a new home.

“This dynamic has suppressed activity in the land market. It is not because Victorians no longer want to build, it is because the established market has not provided the price growth necessary to make new construction stack up.

“The market will not remain out of balance forever. There will come a point where the discount in Victoria becomes too compelling to ignore. Investors and owner occupiers alike will recognise the relative value on offer. When that shift in sentiment happens, and the established market begins to show sustained price growth, the land market will respond quickly.”

• Oliver Hume Chief Economist Matt Bell said Years of underselling compared to population growth means there was elevated pent-up demand that will need new housing.

“First homebuyer incentives are strong and credit remains readily available. House holds are spending again and the unemployment rate is low,” he said.

South East Queensland

• The QMI report showed land sales in South East Queensland for the December 2025 quarter fell back to December 2024 and March 2025 levels, well below what we consider the long-term average.
• As throughout all of 2025, Mr bell said this was accompanied by very high levels of price growth, indicating it remained an under supplied market with plenty of demand.

‘One key difference to the Melbourne market is the performance of the local established housing market,” he said.

“Annual price growth ended the year at just under 15%, keeping new house and land competitive, even as affordability became even more stretched across both markets.

“The changing rate outlook has had less of an impact in this heavily undersupplied market. Prices rose another 3.1% to add to the 10% in the September quarter, leaving prices 27.5% higher than 12 months ago, out pacing a hot established market.”

Adelaide

• Data shows the Adelaide market performed similarly to the SEQ market in 2025 and continues to be driven by a lack of available stock to meet demand.
• The growth in median lot price in Adelaide increased in the December quarter, rising by 6%(compared to 4% in September) to a new high of $371,000, maintaining annual growth at a very strong 27%. On a $/sqm basis price growth was even stronger at 6.8% for the quarter and 41% for the year as the median lot size fell to a new low of 378sqm, 10% smaller than the corresponding quarter last year.
• Even with another quarter of strong price growth and the highest land price growth in the country, Adelaide land prices still remain lower than both Melbourne and South East Queensland, but in $/sqm terms, sits only 15% behind Melbourne.

“Like South East Queensland, the outlook for sales for 2026 depends highly on the ability of developers to bring new product to market,” Mr Bell said.

“The price growth the market is seeing proves the demand is there, and once supply starts flowing, we expect the sales to follow.

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ENDS

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• Oliver Hume
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• Oliver Hume
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