Australia Housing Market Update May 2026 – Oliver Hume Property Group

Australia Housing Market Update May 2026 – Oliver Hume Property Group

The following statement can be attributed to Oliver Hume Property Group Chief Economist, Matt Bell.

Land markets held steady in the March quarter but are easing through the June quarter. A softening established market is not going to help matters, and the deteriorating outlook for overall residential prices in the June quarter means 2026 is going to be a tough slog for pretty much every residential market segment across the country.

Increasing rates and global uncertainty were buffeted by Federal Budget impacts in May to see the national housing market come to a grinding halt. National dwelling price growth was 0% in May. When it comes to trends across capitals, pretty much everything remains the same when it comes to dwelling prices, just lower.

The only positive development for the residential market over May has been the softening outlook for interest rates. Only a few weeks ago the market had locked in at least one more rate hike by October and a second by December.

Some softer inflation prints and a rising unemployment rate has removed at least one of those hikes from the future. Markets now have less than one more rate hike priced in, and that has been pushed out to the final quarter of 2026. Many economists forecast a stable rate environment until the RBA moves to cuts in the second half of 2027.

It won’t take a lot to move sentiment. The rates outlook is still the main game, and a period of stability in the rates outlook, or even a shift to markets forecasting the next move being down, no matter how far out, will see price growth return in a widely undersupplied market.

ENDS

Media enquiries to:

Mitchy Koper
m.koper@oliverhume.com.au 
0417 771 778

Lilly Mackay

l.mackay@oliverhume.com.au

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