The Urban Developer | Perth's 'Unsustainable' House Prices Defy National Slowdown

Clare Burnett reports on Cotality's national home value index results for March 2026, published by The Urban Developer, painting a mixed picture across Australia's capital cities with Perth continuing to outpace the rest of the country.

Nationally, home values rose 0.7 per cent in March, taking quarterly growth to 2.1 per cent — though the pace of gains is easing from the 2.8 per cent recorded the previous quarter. Sydney and Melbourne are experiencing a subtle decline, with values slipping 0.4 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively since late November 2025. Perth tells a very different story, with house values surging 2.5 per cent in March alone and 7.3 per cent for the quarter — a pace Cotality research director Tim Lawless describes as unsustainable, driven by advertised stock levels sitting around 40 per cent below the five-year average.

On rentals, the national rental index is up 5.7 per cent annually — the largest yearly increase since October 2024 — adding $37 per week to the median rental rate, while the national vacancy rate remains well below the decade average at 1.6 per cent.

Oliver Hume Property Group chief economist Matt Bell notes the results came in stronger than expected given market uncertainty following the Iran conflict, but warns that rising construction costs and broader inflationary pressures leave land and established markets finely balanced. Bell flags that any significant escalation in the global crisis could have major consequences for the pace of market recovery, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.

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