Interstate Migration Shifting as Affordability Gap Narrows: Matt Bell on ausbiz

Oliver Hume Chief Economist Matt Bell joined ausbiz for a segment titled The migration switch effect on property, discussing how interstate migration patterns are changing across Australia. Bell outlined how relative housing affordability is reshaping where people move, what lower overseas migration means for housing demand, and how the interest rate outlook is affecting the timing of a property market recovery.

Victoria Returns to Positive Net Interstate Migration

‍Bell said Queensland's net interstate migration has fallen to a 10-year low, while Victoria has returned to positive net interstate migration. He said Queensland has lost some of its previous interstate migration advantage.

Bell attributed part of the change to relative housing affordability. He said rising land and house prices in Queensland have narrowed the affordability gap with Melbourne.

Overseas Migration Will Not Solve the Housing Undersupply

‍Bell said lower overseas migration should reduce some pressure on housing demand, but it will not resolve Australia's underlying supply shortage. He said migration falling from around 292,000 towards the government's 225,000 target would ease demand. However, dwelling construction remains well below the level required to accommodate population growth.

Rate Outlook Pushes Back the Property Market Recovery

‍Bell said the prospect of further RBA rate hikes has delayed the expected property market recovery. While established house prices could stabilise earlier, he expects transaction volumes to take longer to recover, potentially not picking up until the middle or second half of 2027. Bell said buyers are likely to become more active once there is greater confidence that rates have peaked and the next move will be lower.

Watch the full segment: ausbiz

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