Media Release | RBA Rate Hike September 2026

‍With today's release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash ratedecision, the following statements can be attributed to Oliver Hume PropertyGroup chief economist, Matt Bell. Below are comments for two scenarios: a ratehike or a rate hold. 

The RBA Board has delivered on the warnings provided by theGovernor and other key staff over the past few weeks and voted to raise thecash rate by a further 0.25% today.

Markets had largely moved to fully expecting this decision, withall major forecasters and financial markets forecasting a September move. Onlyone month ago, it was viewed as a 50% chance of any further rises, but the RBAmade it clear that those risks of higher inflation have been borne out.

Does it change the outlook for property? Well, yes, it does. Andsignificantly compared to where we were one month ago.  

We’ve always maintained that the budget taxation changes were notthe main game, and this hike and the possibility of another will prove thatout.  We know rate changes can impact property markets up to 6-9 monthsout, and so today’s decision means any recovery has probably been pushed out tomid-year at the earliest, although some markets will move back into growth modebefore that.

The small rebounds in sentiment and auction clearance rates havestalled, and the monthly falls in established prices of around -1% per monthlook as though they will continue in the coming months.  

As always, the fundamentals haven’t changed. Demand exceeds supplyin most markets and household budgets remain in good shape (although weakerafter today’s decision). But this won’t be enough to bring buyers back to thetable until households can be sure their borrowing capacity and mortgagepayments won’t rise further.

November remains a very live meeting, with plenty of forecastersexpecting another hike.  But it will be heavily dependent on the next fewinflation and labour market prints. A push of unemployment up towards 5% willprobably be enough to get the RBA to hold fire until 2027.

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ENDS

Media enquiries and interview requests to:

Lilly Mackay
Oliver Hume
l.mackay@oliverhume.com.au 
0437 899 949

or

Ben Ready
RGC Media & Mktng
ben@rgcmm.com.au
0415 743 838