Australian Property Investor | Australia's Population Growth and Housing

Population Growth Keeps Pressure on Housing as Australia Nears 28 Million

Australian Property Investor Magazine journalist Craig Francis reported on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures, which show Australia's population nearing 28 million. The article examines the political and housing debate around migration, and features Oliver Hume Chief Economist Matt Bell. Bell said interstate movements may reveal more about property markets than the headline overseas migration figures.

Australia's Population Growth and Net Overseas Migration

‍According to the ABS, Australia's population reached 27.9 million at 31 March 2026, an increase of 392,700 over 12 months and annual growth of 1.4 per cent. Natural increase added 100,600 people, while net overseas migration added 292,100, down from 309,500 in the previous 12 months. API Magazine noted this was the lowest migration intake in four years.

The article also covered the Federal Government's moves to reduce net overseas migration amid ongoing housing supply pressures. The May Budget forecast net overseas migration would fall to 245,000 this financial year and then to 225,000. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke announced measures targeting temporary migration, including a new regional work requirement and a lottery for second and third year working holiday visas. Shadow housing minister Andrew Bragg said the temporary intake remained too high given the housing shortage. The article noted that net overseas migration remains well above the roughly 170,000 new homes completed each year.

Why Interstate Migration Matters for Property Markets

‍Bell said that while overseas migration falling below forecast would dominate headlines, interstate movements could have a greater impact on property markets. He pointed to Victoria recording its first net annual inflow of interstate migrants since COVID, a small gain of 82 people. It came in the same quarter that Queensland's quarterly interstate migration fell to its lowest level since 2015. Bell linked the shift to Queensland's changing affordability position. He noted that South East Queensland's vacant land price has been above Greater Melbourne's for almost 18 months and is now more than $100,000 higher. He also cited Cotality data showing Brisbane's established median dwelling value has only overtaken Melbourne's in recent years. He suggested the shift is more about Victorians staying put than Queenslanders actively moving south.

Looking at the national picture, Bell said Australia's growth remains well above the 0.6 per cent average across other advanced economies, with overseas migration still accounting for 74 per cent of annual growth. He said the fundamental drivers of housing demand remain strong despite the current downturn. He expects interest rates to eventually stabilise and fall once inflation is under control, while most markets will still face a critical supply shortage.

Read the full article: Australian Property Investor Magazine

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