Queensland Housing Affordability Edge Over Melbourne Narrows as Migration Shifts

Dynamic Business journalist Yajush Gupta reported on the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics population figures and the change they show in migration between states. Oliver Hume Chief Economist Matt Bell linked the shift to the contrasting performance of the Queensland and Victorian property markets, and to Queensland's narrowing housing affordability advantage over Melbourne.

Victoria Records Net Interstate Migration Inflow

‍Bell said that while headlines would focus on annual overseas migration falling below forecast, interstate movements tell more about property markets. He said Victoria recorded a net inflow of interstate migration on an annual basis for the first time since COVID. Bell acknowledged the figure was small, at 82 persons, but noted it came in the same quarter that Queensland's quarterly interstate migration fell to its lowest level since 2015.

How SEQ Land Prices Are Changing Where People Live

‍Bell pointed to land and housing prices as the likely driver of the shift. He said the vacant land price for South East Queensland has been above that of Greater Melbourne for nearly 18 months and now sits more than $100,000 higher. Citing Cotality, he noted that Brisbane's median dwelling value in established markets has also overtaken Melbourne's only in the last few years.

Bell was careful not to describe the trend as a migration reversal. He said Queenslanders may not be actively moving to Victoria. However, it seems likely more Victorians are staying put because Queensland no longer offers the affordable housing options it historically has.

Population Growth Continues to Underpin Housing Demand

‍At a national level, Bell said Australia's annual population growth continues to ease from post-COVID highs. At 1.4%, however, it remains well above the 0.6% average across other advanced economies, with overseas migration still contributing 74% of annual growth.

Bell said the fundamental drivers of housing demand remain strong despite the current property market downturn. He said population growth drives the need for new apartments, townhouses and detached homes. He also said interest rates will eventually stabilise and then fall once inflation is under control, while Australia will still face a critical housing supply shortage in most markets.

Read the full article: Dynamic Business

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