March Quarter GDP Statement – Oliver Hume

3 Jun

min read

Chief Economist

Matt Bell

March Quarter GDP Statement – Oliver Hume

03 Jun 2026

min read

MARCH QUARTER GDP STATEMENT – OLIVER HUME

Following today's release of quarterly GDP data by the ABS, the following statement can be attributed to Oliver Hume Property Group Chief Economist, Matt Bell.

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Today’s slightly weaker than expected GDP result for the March quarter is going to be the first in a series of a few soft quarters as the global uncertainty that kicked off in late February continues to work its way through the domestic economy.

The result came in at0.4% for the March quarter, and 2.5% year-on-year. This was a weaker than the market expectations of 0.4% and 2.6% and saw per capita growth fall -0.1% after December’s rise to be just 0.1% higher than it was a year ago.

The implications for property markets will be felt through the resilience of the household sector and of course, implications for interest rates.

The details indicate that household and business segments were still performing well prior to price shock.

Combine today’s slightly weaker than forecast GDP result with April’s rise in the unemployment rate to2.5% and a few consecutive softer-than-expected monthly inflation readings, and we’ll see markets lower their probability of another rate hike in 2026 over the coming days.

Before today’s data, markets saw only a 10% chance of a 0.25% hike (ironically the same chance assigned to a 0.25% cut!) at the next meeting in June, and about an 80% chance of a 0.25% hike by December. Until the May inflation and unemployment figures are released in late June, this probability is likely to continue to drift down.

That is, the chance that we’re done with hikes is still well below 50%, but rising.

For property, and particularly land, rates and regulatory bottlenecks are still the main drivers of activity and price. The taxation changes announced in the budget matter, but they are secondary. A stabilisation in the outlook for interest rates and a resilient household sector will do more for property markets over the rest of 2026 and into 2027 than anything else.