ausbiz | Will Changes to SMSF Property Rules Affect Housing Supply?

How Will SMSF Super Changes Impact New Housing Supply?

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Julian Coppini from Oliver Hume Property Group appeared on ausbiz to discuss the Federal Budget's changes to self-managed super fund (SMSF) property investing, negative gearing and capital gains tax. Coppini set out a cautious view, noting the timing is particularly challenging for Melbourne, where apartment construction is already weak after years of cost escalation and subdued presales.

Melbourne's Apartment and Land Market Under Pressure

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Coppini explained that SMSF buyers currently play a critical role in meeting presale thresholds for new apartment projects and some greenfield land developments. In his view, SMSF purchasers account for around 30% of presales on average, and up to 50–60% on some projects.

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He argued that removing SMSFs' ability to borrow would delay or prevent projects from launching, restricting new housing supply and slowing the market nationally — with Melbourne apartments, townhouses and greenfield estates most exposed.

What It Means for Prices and Buyer Behaviour

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On prices, Coppini expects a period of softer conditions, particularly in Melbourne. He noted that established housing there is already relatively cheap compared with new stock, which is drawing first home buyers away from off-the-plan projects.

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With additional investor taxes and SMSF borrowing restrictions layered on top, Coppini suggested many investors will step back from Melbourne and, to a lesser extent, from markets such as Queensland and Perth.

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