Melbourne land prices Q1 2026: what the data shows

Melbourne land prices 2026: what Q1 data reveals, and what it means for the rest of the year

Melbourne's land market recorded 2,085 lot sales and a median lot price of $406,000 in the March 2026 quarter, a result that, given the economic turbulence of the period, represents genuine resilience. But underneath the headline stability, a shift is underway that has not been seen on record: Adelaide's median lot price has surpassed Melbourne's for the first time ever.

This is the Q1 2026 picture. Here is what the data shows, what is driving it, and what buyers, investors, and developers should understand heading into the second half of the year.

This post draws on Oliver Hume's Q1/2026 Quarterly Market Insights (QMI) - our proprietary quarterly research report covering Victoria, South East Queensland, and South Australia. The full report, including state-by-state data, corridor price breakdowns, and suburb-level price maps, is available exclusively to registered subscribers.

Melbourne land sales in Q1 2026: resilience in a difficult quarter

Melbourne recorded 2,085 lot sales in the March 2026 quarter. That is up 7% on December 2025 levels and 8% higher than March 2025.

On its own, that number points to stability. In context - a Middle East conflict beginning in late February, near-historic consumer sentiment lows, and a rates environment that shifted from expected cuts to three delivered hikes - it points to resilience.

On a rolling 12-month basis, Greater Melbourne is now running at just over 9,000 annual sales, the highest rate in three years since March 2023. That is still well below the long-term average of 15,000 to 16,000 annual sales, but nearly 30% higher than the prior 12-month period.

Where did sales grow?

Sales activity shifted north. Hume, Mitchell, and Whittlesea all recorded volume increases, with Mitchell seeing the strongest quarterly and annual growth - up to 170 sales. That reflects buyers moving into Melbourne's most affordable corridor as pricing pressure in the west tightens. Wyndham recorded an 8% increase, pushing it ahead of Melton to become Melbourne's highest-selling corridor for the quarter.

Casey and Cardinia in the South-East held steady. Melton was the only corridor to record a material fall.

Melbourne land prices 2026: a steady market with a historic footnote

The gross median lot price in Melbourne finished the March 2026 quarter at $406,000 - essentially unchanged for the second consecutive quarter. The headline median was down 0.8% from the prior quarter (which was itself revised up slightly), and land price per square metre eased 1.8% as median lot size increased marginally to 384sqm.

Those are small movements. But they sit alongside a data point that would have been almost unimaginable 12 months ago.

For the first time on record, Adelaide's median lot price has surpassed Melbourne's.

Adelaide's median reached $417,500 in the March quarter - an increase of more than $42,000 in a single quarter and up 31% year on year. The affordability gap that favoured Adelaide land over Melbourne by as much as $180,000 in mid-2022 has now closed entirely.

This is not primarily a Melbourne problem - it reflects extraordinary supply constraints in Adelaide driving outsized price growth. But it does represent a genuine structural shift in how the two markets compare, and one Oliver Hume's research team is monitoring closely heading into Q2.

What corridor and suburb data reveals

Oliver Hume's Q1 2026 suburb-level data, drawn from active sales across Melbourne's growth corridors - shows a market of real contrasts.

At the affordable end: Mambourin at $328,000 for a 400sqm lot. At the premium end: Greenvale at $555,000 for the same size. Between those points, the active bulk of Melbourne's market transacts - Tarneit at $444,450, Wollert at $486,450, Truganina at $431,000, Officer at $526,000.

The commonly transacted lot dimensions in Melbourne remain 12.5 x 28m, 12.5 x 32m, and 14 x 28m.

Corridor-level price movements were mixed. Melton and Mitchell recorded median price decreases, largely offset by increases elsewhere.

The full suburb-by-suburb price map, including Geelong corridor data for Lara and Armstrong Creek - is published in the complete Q1/2026 QMI. Register to access the full price map →

The outlook for Melbourne's land market: 2026 and beyond

Oliver Hume's research team forecasts Melbourne's 2026 annual sales volumes to finish at approximately 9,000 sales - broadly in line with 2025, with no meaningful price growth. That is a stable outcome, not a recovery, and the distinction matters for anyone timing a purchase or planning a project.

Three factors explain why the return to long-term activity levels has stalled:

1. ‍The rates environment has reversed. Three RBA hikes have been delivered. What was consensus - rate cuts by mid-2026 - is now a distant scenario. The best case is the RBA holding at current levels for the remainder of the year. That outcome is not certain.‍
2. Consumer sentiment remains historically low. Construction-related inflation is rising as the secondary effects of higher fuel costs flow through the economy. The conditions for a broad recovery in buyer confidence are not yet in place.‍
3. The 2026 Federal Budget has structurally shifted investor demand. From Budget night - 12 May 2026 - investors who purchase established properties can no longer offset rental losses against their salary income. For new builds, nothing changes. This is expected to shift a meaningful portion of investor demand toward new land and house-and-land packages, which are by definition what Melbourne's greenfield market supplies.

The long-term fundamentals supporting Melbourne's recovery remain firmly intact. Population growth is accelerating - more than 105,000 new residents recorded in 2026 to date. First home buyer financial incentives remain strong. Melbourne's relative affordability is the best it has been in years. Oliver Hume's current expectation is that the march back toward 15,000 annual sales will resume in 2027.

What this means for you

1. ‍First home buyers - Melbourne's current market represents one of the more accessible entry windows in recent memory. Corridor-level data shows genuine land price entry points from $328,000, with population growth and infrastructure investment underpinning long-term capital fundamentals. Explore Oliver Hume's active Melbourne land listings →.‍
2. Investors - The Federal Budget changes have materially altered the calculus. Preserved negative gearing, the retained 50% CGT discount, and APRA's debt-to-income cap exemption for new builds create a combined structural advantage for new land investment that did not exist before May 2026. See Oliver Hume's Land Index for current pricing data →.‍
3. Developers and builders - Oliver Hume's March quarter data shows experienced builders are already acting on Melbourne's affordability signal, quietly acquiring parcels of 100+ lots across growth corridors. When builders move in scale, it is rarely without purpose. Contact Oliver Hume's project marketing team → to discuss Q2 and beyond.

Access the full Q1/2026 Quarterly Market Insights

This article draws on a selection of data from Oliver Hume's Q1/2026 Quarterly Market Insights. The complete report includes:

• Victoria, South East Queensland, and Adelaide market overviews with quarterly sales and price data
• Suburb-level median price maps for Melbourne, SEQ, and Adelaide
• Matt Bell's full Q1 economic analysis and 2026 outlook by state
• Buyer behaviour research across Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia
• Feature analysis on the Federal Budget's impact on investment property, builder acquisition activity in Melbourne, and the Gold Coast supply crisis

The QMI is produced every quarter and distributed exclusively to Oliver Hume's registered network of developers, investors, builders, and buyers. Registration is free.

Register to receive the Q1/2026 QMI and all future editions →

Source: Oliver Hume Research, Q1/2026 Quarterly Market Insights.