The Friday Wrap 21 Nov 2025

CPI, Interest Rate Outlook, Auction Rate and more!

Good afternoon,

A very quiet week on the domestic data front. However, next week we get the first release of the complete Monthly CPI for the month of October. It essentially replaces the complete Quarterly CPI as key driver of the interest rate outlook (although there is a transition period of about 18 months where both will be produced).

Property highlights of the week:

• Wage growth was the only significant release from the ABS and was right in line with expectations. Quarterly growth of 0.8% was the same as last year, leaving annual growth steady at 3.4%. Stronger public sector wage growth offset weaker private sector growth.
• Markets continue to trim back their expectations of rate cuts. Financial markets now have exactly a 50% chance of one more cut for by June 2026 and slightly less than 50% for the May 2026 meeting, which comes after the March quarter inflation figures are released.
• Auction clearance rates held at 70% last weekend on the highest volume of auctions in more than 18 months. Melbourne had its third-busiest auction week of the year last week, with 1,484 homes taken under the hammer. The preliminary clearance rate slipped to 70.5%, down from 72.8%