Media Release | Reserve Bank of Australia Rates Decision Statement – Oliver Hume

Ahead of today's release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate decision, the following statements can be attributed to Oliver Hume Property Group chief economist, Matt Bell.

Rate hold

For the second meeting in a row, financial markets agreed completely with surveyed economists and gave virtually no chance of a rate hike today. And consistent with every decision this year, the RBA delivered in line with market expectations. Before today’s decision markets had priced in ~96% chance of no change.

June inflation coming in below market expectations and in line with RBA forecasts was enough to offset ongoing strong household spending and a persistently low unemployment rate and keep the RBA on a watch-and-see pattern after the 0.75% of rate hikes in February, March and April.

Markets have just below a 50% chance of another 0.25% hike by December, with that rising to just over 50% by March 2027, with cuts commencing in the second half of 2027 at the earliest.

So since the last decision in early June, we’re back to the same point: a real possibility we are at the peak of the rate cycle, having reversed all of 2025’s cuts. What is the outlook for property?

Now that a lot of the hysteria around the budget taxation changes for investors has died down, rates remain the main driver of the short term outlook. The fundamentals haven’t changed. Demand exceeds supply in most markets and household budgets remain in good shape.

Consumer sentiment is rising off recent lows and weekly auction clearance rates hit 11-week highs on the weekend. Land market volumes were slightly down nationally in the June quarter and still slow in July and price growth in most markets remains strong as demand remains robust.

Clearly the outlook for property for the September quarter remains soft, both for new and established markets but with the outlook for rates for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 stabilising, we expect to see a return to the pre-crisis path of activity by early 2027.

ENDS

Media enquiries:

Lilly Mackay

Oliver Hume Property Group

0437 899 949

Ben Ready                                                                                                                    

RGC Media & Mktng                                                                                                    

0415 743 838

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